Merkel to Go to Bat for Sarkozy Campaign?

From this morning's France24:

"Sarkozy’s German-inspired reforms are likely to please Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is believed to have offered to lend her support to Sarkozy’s re-election bid.

Merkel and Sarkozy were nicknamed ‘Merkozy’ for their close relationship and joint efforts to tackle the Eurozone crisis.

FRANCE 24’s International Affairs Editor Douglas Herbert said: “I think he is very happy to have Merkel’s support but it works both ways.”

“Sarkozy is someone she thinks she can trust to keep Europe on the right path.”

A "Budget Commissioner" for Greece?

This just in from the Wall Street Journal: Germany's Wolfgang Schauble is part of a group involved with the resolution of the Euro crisis that suggests the EU appoint a "budget commissioner" for Greece. The effort would aim to secure trustworthiness--and, ultimately, a way out--for the seemingly never-ending circles made around finally coming to a eurozone currency crisis fix. From the article: 

"Europe is "prepared to support Greece" with the new loan package, Mr. Schäuble said, but he warned: "Unless Greece implements the necessary decisions and doesn't just announce them…there's no amount of money that can solve the problem."

The remarks came as German officials last week floated the radical idea of appointing a European "budget commissioner" with veto powers over Greece's spending, partially suspending Greece's national sovereignty over its budget, in return for aid."

Graphic: How the EU Gets and Spends Its Money

More great infographics from the Guardian. See "Where does the European Union get its money from – and how does it spend it?", part of the newspaper's new "Europa" venture with several other leading European dailies. 

Megacities

... And we're back! EurAmerican has been dormant these last few, but here's something I couldn't help but share. "The Rise of the Megacities" is a new study published by the Guardian, detailing global trends on cities and the signs that urban life will be the prevailing mode of living for the 21st century. Article here, zoomable graphic here.

Also check out the online newspaper I'm involved with, the European Daily, whose "Abroad" page features my latest editorial wizardry. Enjoy!

Repeat and Recycle: Is Romney Giving Neocons a "Second Chance?"

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney. 

I just found this post and, though it's a hoary-bearded three weeks old, I find it interesting enough to dust off and shamelessly re-hash in a way that would be acceptable in no other time than our own: the Retweet Generation. So: For those Europeans (or interested others) out there who want to know what the leading Republican candidate's foreign policy might look like, check out the Atlantic Review's post on Mitt Romney's foreign policy team. 

Most controversial is the preponderance of George W. Bush administration veterans that comprise the list, including marquee names such as Michael Chertoff, Eliot Cohen, and Robert Kagan, to list just three. 

Liberal US commentator Rachel Maddow titled her response as: "Romney Gives Bush Neocons A Second Chance," but Joerg Wolf, the Atlantic Review's author, is less excited by the news, re-quoting Washington think tanker James Joyner who said of the announcement, "like Romney himself, it's not particularly exciting. Nor, thankfully, is it frightening."

Wolf concludes with this, highlighting the figures responsible for the Europe dossier:

"Nile Gardiner from Heritage is co-chair for Europe. The other co-chair is Kristen Silverberg, Chief Operating Officer at Vorbeck Materials; Ambassador to the European Union (2008-2009). I wish he would have advisors with a bit more experience. I can think of a few such think tankers in Washington.

"What do you think? To whom should the Republican presidential candidates turn to for advice on Europe, or on foreign policy in general? Which think tankers or former officials would make the best national security and foreign policy advisors for a Republican president?"

EurAmerican has kind of a thing for neoconservatism, in a hot-and-cold, critical-distance sort of way. See past post include the one here. 

As on the Atlantic Review site, comments are welcome here. 

Euro Summit: Chinese Help and Italian Trouble

The Economist just published this post on the element of this week's eurozone summit that would involve Chinese cash as a part of the currency zone's recapitalization plan. Ever instructive, the article lays out the China factor in some of the magazine's trademark economics-in-layman's-terms. I didn't know, for example, that the EU is China's biggest trading partner. Given all the hub-bub stateside, wouldn't most Americans assume that position was enjoyed (or maligned) by the United States? 

Yet the piece's author makes an effort to signal that the appeal for Chinese cash is neither revolutionary nor a particularly important change in the status quo. He takes a longer-term view on the EU-Chinese relationship, which of course bears direct influence on the American role between the two. 

"Grand political bargains between China and Europe—money in return for more representation at the IMF, or market-economy status—seem wildly improbable. These prizes will eventually come anyway; and weak though parts of Europe are, the EU cannot be seen to trade them too nakedly. Bargaining of this sort would also require both parties to change their positions markedly. China is keen not to be seen as a source of “dumb money”, but requiring big political concessions in return for cash is a pretty clear signal that this is not a commercially attractive investment. As for the euro zone, it can hardly claim that senior Spanish and Italian debt is now safe for institutional investors if it has to horse-trade too hard to get China on board."

And further along the pessimism spectrum is the Wall Street Journal, which, true to form, has expressed typical euro-skepticism on the summit's results and bemoaned the plan's lack of detail and the risks that remain for U.S. companies and stakeholders. Though the European Financial Stability Facility will "backstop" troubled eurozone countries against default, the paper says, this week's decisions fall short of the muscular moves called for by experts and do relatively little to stem fears of a backslide toward recession in Europe and worldwide. 

Both articles signal the lingering dangers of the tenuous Italian situation, where fractious politics in Silvio Berlusconi's government has dimmed hopes for any kind of meaningful action against the euro's woes. Italy is heavily in debt and, as the third-largest economy on the euro, its future determines that of a host of other dependent nations both in and outside the monetary bloc.

Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal and ICAP

Though the chart refers to Italy only, its title -- "Brief Relief" -- sounds just as appropriate for the whole of the eurozone for the many observers that continue to be concerned about the currency's immediate and middle-term prospects.

Update: European Daily

All apologies for a lapse in activity at EurAmerican.  Just a heads-up, I'll be contributing to the European citizen newspaper European Daily, specifically to the "Abroad" section, on a regular basis.  You can check out my work for the Sunday page here.

Mixed Feelings on Mid-Crisis EU

Behind the euro crisis is a crisis of confidence, felt differently but to similarly intense degrees throughout the Continent. 

Northern countries have been feeling taken advantage of, with the common refrain echoing a feeling that the southern EU countries have spent with abandon the considerable benefits received from their neighbors. But "the feeling is mutual," reports Global Post, and in the case of Spain, many feel they have exchanged cash for compromised protections of rights, crisis-time mismanagement, sacrifice of national sovereignty, and kowtowing by Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero toward demanding eurocrats in Brussels. 

Nobel laureate Robert Mundell said on August 26, "I don't think the euro is on the verge of collapsing."

Alan Greenspan, the former head of the US Federal Reserve, said on August 24, "The euro is breaking down."

Eschewing with the "United States of Europe" idea, Romanian Mircea Cărtărescu favors a union centered around the "European mind" and a federation "not solely focused on the issue of economic survival." He says: 

"Present-day Europe relates to the United States as Athens once did to ancient Rome. And although at one point Athens sought to emulate Rome, I can see no reason why modern Europe should seek to emulate the United States."

German ex-foreign minister Joschka Fischer counters that "we need to work toward the United States of Europe now."

In Estonia, a slightly but definitely more optimistic note can be heard in the public opinion of the country's lot as it relates to the EU, again reported by Global Post. Says Swedish Prime Minister, Carl Bildt, 

“I remember the days when the counters of the shops in Tallinn were empty and the people were starving. The economy more or less had to be rebuilt from scratch... If you had asked people on Aug. 20, 1991 whether in 20 years “Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be seen as economic success stories in Europe, would be full members of NATO, full members of the European Union,” Bildt asked, “if anyone had said yes, that person would have been seen as a fairly likely candidate for lunacy.”

But such a public, party-line voice is bound to be tempered by ordinary citizens, in this case from Tallinn, the Estonian capital:

"Nineteen-year-old Katrina Ulbeerte, bopping along with her younger sister, laughs when asked what she knew about Soviet times before she was born. In American slang, she said her parents have told her that life then was difficult. “They told about special lessons about, like, communists and, like, all kinds of military stuff. I’m happy I don’t have to go work in a factory!”

"But 55-year-old Ieva Inauska, who couldn’t speak English but conveyed her thoughts quite clearly in broken German and hand gestures, doesn’t see much of a change. “Soviet Union? Bah. European Union? Bah. The European Union bureaucracy is even bigger than the Soviet Union’s!” And, she indicated, she preferred the latter."

EU, Texas Economics: Language, Money, Mobility

The Wall Street Journal compares, of all things, EU economics to Texan ones:

"Arguably, the heart of the euro zone's problem isn't a matter of culture or governance or remaining barriers to trade in goods. Rather, it's the huge hurdle that has always existed: Europe's multiplicity of languages. The fact that few Greeks or Portuguese have enough German to take on professional or even semi-skilled jobs in Germany removes the sort of safety valve that properly integrated federations rely on.

A case in point is the Texan economic miracle, the subject of considerable debate in the U.S. right now. Texan politicians make strong claims for the state's performance relative to the rest of the U.S. during the recovery. Doubters point to the fact that Texan unemployment remains high.

But a close reading of the data by Matthias Shapiro on his Political Math blog highlights something very interesting. Texan unemployment belies the strength of the state's economy because it has had considerable population growth during the past couple of years. Texas's strong employment growth has inspired people to flock to the state—so much so that the actual proportion out of work hasn't come down as fast as it might have done otherwise.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, Texas's labor force has grown by 6%, astonishingly quickly for such a large state—more than twice as fast as the next-fastest state. When people are hit by hard economic times in one part of the U.S., they pack their bags and move to where the jobs are. The same doesn't happen in Europe.

For instance, the economically active population in Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has shrunk by about half a percentage point during the same time Texas has boomed. This is why Germany's unemployment rate has fallen much faster than that of Texas even as unemployment remains at stratospheric levels in countries like Spain.

Even in the years before the financial crisis, immigration to Germany from other European Union countries was equivalent to only about 0.4% of Germany's population, and most of that in the form of cheap labor from neighboring Poland.

Because it's harder for people from poorer euro-zone countries to move to the core, where there are jobs, fiscal transfers are crucial to address imbalances between the economies. But there's currently very little scope for these in Europe. EU spending as a percentage of GDP is less than a tenth of the U.S. federal government's.

 

Consummate Citizens: Turks Defend Turf in London Riots

Thought I'd break the silence with my first post in way-too-long with this unusual piece on Turkish shopowners taking matters into their own hands during the London riots. 

Al-Jazeera reports a groundswell of local action against the looting and lawlessness currently plaguing London. With PM David Cameron pondering curfews and many in Europe wondering whether the unrest will spread to the Continent -- endemic of the same recession-related problems of unemployment and ever-tighter strains from austerity -- in the coming days. 

Interviewees expressed a surprising common theme of pro-Turkish sentiment, specifically concerning the question of the integration of Turkish-descended European citizens and, by extension, Turkey's accession into the European Union. The best bits of the Al-Jazeera piece are below.

"Our local shopkeeper refused to close. He said 'we are Turkish' as explanation," said one post. Another added: "Reports of heroic scenes on Dalston High Street. Turkish families lining the streets to oppose riots. What great Londoners."

Another, along similar lines, read: "Upper Dalston looks busier than a Saturday night with all the Turks on patrol! Thanks for Keeping Dalston safe!" followed by: "Who needs riot police when you’ve got Turkish shop owners."

One posting characterised the showdown between the Turkish restaurateurs and their masked adversaries as "baklavas versus balaclavas," while another summed up prevailing sentiments with "Say what you will about letting Turkey getting in the EU, they’re there when we need them."

Perhaps extrapolating the policing skills of London's Turks somewhat implausibly to the level of international diplomacy, one post mused: "If only Turkey can bring to Syria in the next few days what they've brought to Dalston and London in the last few."